Seminars About Long Term Thinking

02009 Seminar Listing

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Friday, December 4th, 02009

Rick Prelinger

Lost Landscapes of San Francisco 4

Rick Prelinger, a guerrilla archivist who collects the uncollected and makes it accessible, presents the fourth of his annual Lost Landscapes of San Francisco screenings. You'll see an eclectic montage of rediscovered and rarely-seen film clips showing life, landscapes, labor and leisure in a vanished San Francisco as captured by amateurs, newsreel cameramen and industrial filmmakers.

How we remember and record the past reveals much about how we address the future. Prelinger will preface the screening with a brief talk on how historical memory is shifting away from mass culture towards individual expression, and what consequences will arise from the emerging massive matrix of personal records.

Join us for a reception with no-host bar following the Seminar in the main Lobby of the Herbst Theater.

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Wednesday, November 18th, 02009

Sander van der Leeuw

The Archaeology of Innovation

Are we the first civilization to try and innovate our way out of climate change? How have past societies engineered sustainable solutions to a shifting world?

Sander van der Leeuw, Director of the School of Human Evolution and Social Change at Arizona State University and External Faculty Member of the Santa Fe Institute, has spent his career studying these questions. At his Seminar van der Leeuw will be exploring this research into the past, as well as its application to our current global predicament.

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Friday, October 9th, 02009

Stewart Brand

Rethinking Green

This talk launches Brand's new book: Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto.  His argument is that taking account of the emerging global forces of climate change, urbanization, and biotechnology forces a rethink of some traditional environmental positions. 

Cities are Green, with huge room for improvement.  Nuclear power is Green, with better still to come.  Genetic engineering is Green and shows potentially revolutionary promise.  Direct intervention in the climate---geoengineering---may be necessary.  The classic environmental project of restoring natural systems has to step up in scale and deepen the quality of its science and engineering.

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Monday, September 14th, 02009

Arthur Ganson

Machines and the Breath of Time

Arthur Ganson uses humble materials to create kinetic sculptures of humor, drama, and emotion.  His work has been shown around the world, and has been an ongoing inspiration for the 10,000 Year Clock project at Long Now.  His machinated gestures play with time spans that range from the epochal to the momentary.

One of the touchstone pieces for the Clock project is the Machine with Concrete.  The input of the piece is a 200 revolution per minute motor, and after series of gear reductions it's output gear is cast in concrete.  Due to the multiplicative nature of the gear train it will take upwards of two trillion years to break the final gear.  Ganson will be discussing the theme of time in his work, and will be bringing a piece to show live at the event.

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Monday, August 17th, 02009

Wayne Clough

Smithsonian Forever

Wayne Clough is the 12th Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution.  In July 1998 he took the reins of the world's largest museum and research complex and has since initiated long-range planning for the Smithsonian that includes increasing its accessibility. 

Many of the 137 million objects in the Institution's collection will be digitized and made available to the public along with curatorial content produced by Smithsonian experts.

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Tuesday, July 28th, 02009

Pamela RonaldRaoul Adamchak

Organically Grown and Genetically Engineered: The Food of the Future

She's the head of a plant genetics lab at UC Davis; he teaches organic farming there. They're married (with kids), and they coauthored Tomorrow's Table: Organic Farming, Genetics, and the Future of Food.

In the book they wrote: "To meet the appetites of the world's population without drastically hurting the environment requires a visionary new approach: combining genetic engineering and organic farming.Š Genetic engineering can be used to develop seeds with enhanced resistance to pests and pathogens; organic farming can manage the overall spectrum of pests more effectively."

Agriculture has been a revolutionary biological science for 10,000 years, husbanding soil, tweaking the genes of the food crops. This is the next stage.

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Monday, May 18th, 02009

Paul Romer

A Theory of History, with an Application

Paul Romer is best known as the lead developer of New Growth Theory, which shows how societies can speed up the discovery and implementation of new technologies; essentially, ideas about how objects interact. However, to address the big problems we’ll face this century; insecurity, harm to the environment, and global poverty, new technologies will not be enough.

His current focus is on mechanisms that can speed up the discovery and implementation of new rules - ideas about how people interact. For his work on the economics of ideas, Paul was named one of America’s 25 most influential people by TIME magazine.

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Tuesday, May 5th, 02009

Michael Pollan

Deep Agriculture

Michael Pollan describes his program to transform American agriculture as a "sun food agenda." He is the author of two influential books---In Defense of Food: An Eater's Manifesto ; and The Omnivore's Dilemma: A Natural History of Four Meals . He is the director the Knight Program in Science and Environmental Journalism at UC-Berkeley.

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Wednesday, April 8th, 02009

Gavin Newsom

Cities and Time

More than any other political entity, cities learn from each other. San Francisco's youthful mayor has traveled the world examining what works best in other cities. Now in his sixth year on the job, he has seen various ideas and programs bloom or wither, and has led the city's ambition to become one of the world's Greenest. In this talk we hear about lessons learned and plans in the making, in a world now mostly urban.

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Friday, March 20th, 02009

Daniel Everett

Endangered languages, lost knowledge and the future

The Pirahã, a remote Amazonian tribe with little outside contact, have attracted the attention of mainstream media, scientists, zen buddhists, professors of religion, mathematicians, philosophers and others because of their unusual confluence of values, language, and culture.

Now, after 20 years of high intellectual and physical adventure living among them, Dan Everett proposes a revolution in anthropology and linguistics: culture profoundly shapes language, even at the most fundamental level. What happens when a language-culture pairing like the Pirahãs' is lost?

The Pirahãs are not alone in their lessons and knowledge for all of us -- there are hundreds of endangered languages in the world -- but their example provides a remarkably clear example of alternative knowledge and ways of talking of importance to all of us as we ponder how we should try to build future lives.

Everett is author of Don't Sleep, There Are Snakes: Life and Language in the Amazon Jungle (02008) and is Chair of Languages, Literatures, and Cultures at Illinois State University.

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Friday, February 13th, 02009

Dmitry Orlov

Social Collapse Best Practices

A close student and observer of the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe twenty years ago, engineer Dmitry Orlov finds a similar sequence of events taking shape in America. His savagely humorous presentation spells out how Russia was better prepared than the US is for the stages of collapse that begin with financial meltdown. Renewal awaits on the other side of collapse, and there are ways to hasten that process. Orlov is the author of Reinventing Collapse: Soviet Example and American Prospects (02008).

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Friday, January 16th, 02009

Saul Griffith

Climate Change Recalculated

"It is not accurate to say we can still stop climate change," says Saul Griffith, the Bay Area inventor who received a MacArthur "genius" award in 2007.  "We are now working to stop worse climate change or much-worse-than-worse climate change."

Griffith has done the research and the math to figure out exactly what it will take for humanity to soften the impact of climate change in the next 25 years, and he lays it out in a dazzling presentation.  It is horrifying news.  The politics and technologies we have now are not up to the task.

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Upcoming Seminars

  • Thursday April 1
  • David Eagleman
  • “Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization”





Previous Seminars

02010 Catalog



  • Wade Davis
  • “The Wayfinders: Why Ancient Wisdom Matters in the Modern World”

02009 Catalog







  • Paul Romer
  • “A Theory of History, with an Application”



  • Daniel Everett
  • “Endangered languages, lost knowledge and the future”



02008 Catalog








  • Paul Ehrlich
  • “The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment”



  • Craig Venter
  • “Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention”


  • Paul Saffo
  • “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”

02007 Catalog





  • Alex Wright
  • “Glut: Mastering Information Though the Ages”





  • Brian Fagan
  • “We Are Not the First to Suffer Through Climate Change”

  • Vernor Vinge
  • “What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?”

  • Philip Tetlock
  • “Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs”

02006 Catalog

  • Philip Rosedale
  • “'Second Life:' What Do We Learn If We Digitize EVERYTHING?”



  • Orville Schell
  • “China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?”

  • John Rendon
  • “Long-term Policy to Make the War on Terror Short”



  • Jimmy Wales
  • “Vision: Wikipedia and the Future of Free Culture”

  • Kevin Kelly
  • “The Next 100 Years of Science: Long-term Trends in the Scientific Method.”



02005 Catalog

  • Sam Harris
  • “The View from the End of the World”

  • Clay Shirky
  • “Making Digital Durable: What Time Does to Categories”



  • Robert Fuller
  • “Patient Revolution: Human Rights Past and Future”






  • Roger Kennedy
  • “The Political History of North America from 25,000 BC to 12,000 AD”

  • James Carse
  • “Religious War In Light of the Infinite Game”

02004 Catalog






  • Jill Tarter
  • “The Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence: Necessarily a Long-term Strategy”



  • Daniel Janzen
  • “Third World Conservation: It's ALL Gardening”



  • George Dyson
  • “There's Plenty of Room at the Top: Long-term Thinking About Large-scale Computing”

02003 Catalog



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Fostering Long-term Responsibility
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